Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 69.5%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Minuten
28. Apr. 26, 19:37 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️
Manifold MarketsWill Tim Walz run for an elected office before EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsUnlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsWill Matthew McConaughey run for office before 2028?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office.
- If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.
- Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack .
