Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffKITechnik3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.4%
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Veraltet18. Aug. 26, 03:44 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 59% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? entschieden?
- Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.