Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.9%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet15. Apr. 26, 07:06 UTC1. Jan. 27, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?
KalshiWill Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by which date?
PolymarketAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketRegeln
Leaving for any reason counts as YES - resignation (effective in 2026), death, impeachment, etc.
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? entschieden?
- Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Leaving for any reason counts as YES - resignation (effective in 2026), death, impeachment, etc.