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  1. Prognosemärkte
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  3. Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold Markets

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

RegulierungOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina4J
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
2026 33%
Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker

2

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vorgestern

Veraltet
13. Juni 26, 23:0731. Dez. 30, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

202633%

Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.

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Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.