Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
One-OffHealth & MedicineChina4JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2030 69.2%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet13. Juni 26, 23:07 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
- Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
- Resolution Rules:
- YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2030 mit 69% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? entschieden?
- Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria