Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 77%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet10. Dez. 25, 03:58 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Life360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Acceptable sources for resolution:
- Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings
- Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts
- Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter
Offene Märkte
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 90.470,3 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,8 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 877.037,1 €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6540,9 €
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? entschieden?
- Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? soll am 30. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria