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Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Auditing language models for hidden objectives is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Auditing language models for hidden objectives" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.