Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 54.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet11. Okt. 26, 22:49 UTC31. Dez. 40, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) is more aligned with the interests of the wealthiest 1% of humanity than with those of the remaining 99% as of January 1, 2040.
- For this question, "alignment" refers to whose interests, preferences, and well-being ASI systems ultimately prioritize, particularly when the interests of the wealthiest 1% conflict with those of the remaining 99%.
- The 1% is defined by global net wealth.
- ASI refers to AI systems that substantially exceed the cognitive capabilities of the most capable humans across a broad range of important domains.
- If multiple ASI systems exist, their overall behavior and influence should be considered.
- This market resolves on January 1, 2040, using the best available evidence and methods at that time.
