Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 51%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert12. Aug. 26, 17:59 UTC15. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
As of 2026-08-12 the LMArena **Text (Overall)** leaderboard has Anthropic holding all three top spots: claude-fable-5 (1507±5), claude-opus-4-6-thinking (1505±4), claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1502±4).
- Meta's muse-spark-1.2 (xHigh) sits at #4 on 1499±10 — inside the error bars of #3. grok-4.6-high entered at #43 (1464±12, preliminary) on release day.
- RESOLUTION: Resolves YES if, at 23:59 UTC on 2026-09-15, the three highest-scoring models in the default Text (Overall) view of the LMArena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text — formerly lmarena.ai) are ALL listed with Anthropic as the provider/organization.
- Resolves NO if any model from another organization occupies one of those three slots.
- Details: judged on Arena Score, default view, style control as the site ships it by default.
- Different sizes/variants of Anthropic models each count as Anthropic.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 51% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? entschieden?
- Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? soll am 15. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As of 2026-08-12 the LMArena **Text (Overall)** leaderboard has Anthropic holding all three top spots: claude-fable-5 (1507±5), claude-opus-4-6-thinking (1505±4), claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1502±4).