Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 58.7%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet31. Juli 26, 13:09 UTC31. Juli 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Slay the Spire 2 be fully released?
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.
- Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
- [Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
- To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
- Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
- No strategic assistance.