Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)??

Manifold Markets bewertet Will not cause extinction mit 78.8% (Stand: 23. Oktober 2026).

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Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Please answer as you would for the question "will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100".

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Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

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Will not cause extinction 78.8%

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Please answer as you would for the question "will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100".

If your answer is "no", choose "the named outcome"
If your answer is "yes", please try to identify which of the following scenarios will be the "main" cause for human extinction:
Foom: rapidly self-improving AI destroys humanity as a result of pursuing some misaligned goal
Terminator: AI blatantly disregards human instructions and pursues its own goals.
Alignment Failure: AI appears superficially good but causes extinction due to a subtly mis-stated goal.

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Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

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Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?