Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 86.8%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Minuten
24. Feb. 26, 14:28 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human
Manifold MarketsIs FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves YES if the following statement is true:
- For a typical nontrivial open mathematical conjecture stated within the standard axioms of mathematics, the probability that a publicly available AI system solves the conjecture autonomously within a fixed time horizon is greater than the probability that a human mathematician solves it within the same time horizon without assistance from AI.
- Resolution will be based on my judgment.
- I am a PhD student in mathematics.
- I will not place any bets in this market, as the resolution depends on my own judgment.
- Clarifications
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 87% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? entschieden?
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES if the following statement is true: