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Veraltet22. Feb. 25, 06:12 UTC31. Dez. 30, 21:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? entschieden?
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.