Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?
One-OffTechnik2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 97.6%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet10. März 25, 13:58 UTC31. Dez. 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiRegeln
After extensive discussions and no consensus among Wikipedians, a 6-month moratorium on move requests for the "Twitter" article was imposed; that moratorium expires March 30, 2025.
- This market resolves YES if on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 PST (UTC-8), the English-language Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirects to the "Twitter" article.
- Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- If Wikipedia ceases to exist by the end date, the market resolves N/A. The redirect change must remain in place for at least 14 consecutive days and not be a temporary change due to vandalism, testing, or technical errors.
- The market will resolve by January 14, 2027 at the latest, but could resolve at the end of 2026 if qualifying changes occur earlier.
