Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseGoogle 100%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Prognostiker
59
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert27. Feb. 26, 21:23 UTC31. Dez. 26, 21:19 UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRegeln
A member of the listed organization must be penalized.
- The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient.
- If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES.
- If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES.
- If a law enforcement branch makes an legitimate indictment or arrest, resolves YES.
- The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 90.470,3 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,8 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 877.037,1 €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6540,9 €
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Google mit 100% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? entschieden?
- Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: A member of the listed organization must be penalized.