Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Reform 40%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+4.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 27 Minuten
28. Apr. 26, 09:13 UTC31. Dez. 26, 10:06 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Reform mit 40% (Stand: 11. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? entschieden?
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.