Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Tyler Cowen 100%Führend unter 28 Optionen
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 20 Stunden
Veraltet27. Jan. 25, 00:54 UTC31. Dez. 30, 21:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Tyler Cowen mit 100% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? entschieden?
- Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Please add answers!