Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNick Bostrom 85.2%Führend unter 37 Optionen
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert2. Okt. 25, 07:35 UTC30. Dez. 99, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will 10 or more people be alive on the moon at the end of 2034?
Manifold MarketsBy the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
PolymarketWill these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
"We get ASI" = 1 January of the year before the first of the questions in this series to resolve YES (e.g. if https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 resolves NO and https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 resolves YES, this question resolves based on who is alive on 1 Jan 2024).
