Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognosePerplexity 37.6%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet3. Nov. 25, 14:52 UTC31. Dez. 35, 14:48 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWhat are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketAnthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times).
- If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.
- OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 19,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 210.915,2 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Perplexity mit 38% (Stand: 19. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of these AI companies will shut down first? entschieden?
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? soll am 31. Dezember 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of these AI companies will shut down first? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria