Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJudge David J. Porter 96%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet8. Sept. 25, 18:37 UTC8. Sept. 27, 18:23 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsWill the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?
KalshiWill Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?
Manifold MarketsCircuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a court rule Visa violated antitrust law on debit?
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 220.373,6 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 105.106,7 €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Judge David J. Porter mit 96% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? entschieden?
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? soll am 8. September 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria