Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 09:21 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Führend unter 7 Optionen
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet28. Okt. 24, 14:20 UTC1. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which publicly traded US companies will do a purely-LLM-performance-based layoff in 2026?
Manifold MarketsExit valuation of Spine AI (YC S23)?
Manifold MarketsOf the top 18 jobs in the US in the year 2022, which one will be first to lose at least 1/2 of its workers?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.
