Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
KI4J
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Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%Prognostiker
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Veraltet19. Dez. 23, 18:43 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
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Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.
- If I believe with 90%+ confidence that one of these conditions has been met first, including in testing or training of an unreleased system, even if that capability is not available to the public, I will pick that as the winner.
- If the same system does more than one of them at the same time, and it is unclear which one came first, I will choose the one whose requirements I feel was most impressively exceeded, so as to pick one winner.
- If a model would be High risk under a definition, but is not due to mitigations taken, then that counts as high risk, even if all publicly available versions have mitigations in place.
- If we have no knowledge of any success of any such threshold by 1 Jan 2030, then that answer wins, to ensure this eventually resolves.
- The system that does this can be made by anyone, not only OpenAI.
