Aktuelle Community-Prognose
OpenAI 32.6%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-0.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert26. Aug. 26, 19:19 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index be at EOY 2026?
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the organization or laboratory (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or others) that developed the model holding the highest general capability score on the official Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) Leaderboard (interactive version at epoch.ai/eci) as of December 31, 2027.
- The resolution will be based on the general ECI, rather than domain-specific sub-indices (such as the Math ECI or SWE ECI).
- Highest score is determined by the model with the highest point estimate on the index.
- If there is an exact tie between models from different organizations, resolution will be split equally among the tying options.
- If Epoch AI has ceased updating or maintaining the ECI, or if the site is permanently down at the end of 2027, the market will resolve based on the last available snapshot of the index on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine from 2027.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 125.175,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.021,8 €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet OpenAI mit 33% (Stand: 11. September 2026).
- Wann wird Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? entschieden?
- Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria