Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2030 66.2%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert31. Aug. 26, 19:37 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
- Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
- An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
- (Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2030 mit 66% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? entschieden?
- When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd