Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??

Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2030 mit 72.9% (Stand: 29. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? entschieden?

When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.

KIOne-Off4J

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Before 2030 72.9%

Führend unter 5 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

0.0 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde

Verzogert

31. Aug. 26, 19:37 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
(Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).