When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
29.0 Pkt. (24h)InflationOne-OffBonds & Treasuries2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore January 1, 2027 54%+29.0ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
7d-Änderung
+29.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten
3. Sept. 26, 13:591. Jan. 29, 14:35
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Regeln
$40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.
- All of these lead to an inexorable increase and interest rates on US notes, and bonds.
- This market will result in a positive answer if during DAYTIME markets, the yield of the 10 year ticks up above 5% as reported by the CBOE ten year yield symbol ^tnx
Offene Märkte
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+12.0pt57.7%
- 25 bps increase-10.0pt40.4%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 74,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,3 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 402.201,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 65.874,3 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-9.0pt61.4%
- No+9.0pt38.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 48.609 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting-10.0pt57.1%
- September Meeting-12.0pt42.9%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-1.5pt36.5%
- 0 (0 bps)+8.0pt34.6%
- 2 (50 bps)-2.5pt22.4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 8701,3 €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- How high will inflation get this year?
- CPI in August
- Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- FAO Food Price Index in August
- US gasoline CPI for August
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August Inflation US - Monthly
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before January 1, 2027 mit 54% (Stand: 4. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? entschieden?
- When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? soll am 1. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: $40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.