Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore Jan 2030 91.8%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet4. Jan. 26, 07:34 UTC1. Jan. 30, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I be using a brain-computer interface in my daily life by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I begin using cryptocurrency transactions in my daily life before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I lose my current job by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
I currently have an iPhone 13.
- It mostly suits me, but the battery is weak (about 75% health; I might replace it) and sometimes I have performance issues, especially in the browser (maybe related to the battery?).
- I’m fine with Liquid Glass, I don’t see that as a detractor (and my phone is up to date).
- I don’t intend to switch any time soon, I’d rather not spend the money, but all else equal I’d like a newer phone.
- However, I might need to switch, like if my phone breaks or if Apple stops providing security updates.
- I am financially able to buy a new phone, but it’s not a trivial purchase, and an economic downturn would make me much less willing to upgrade.