Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027-2029 60.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
412
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-1.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet15. Okt. 23, 12:32 UTC11. Nov. 30, 22:00 UTC
Trends
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.
- If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82.
- There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia.
- On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":
- https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-health-bdce6c15df6186e06710f2d903a3513e
- [link preview]
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 592.485,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 602,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 220.373,6 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 214.593,4 €
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Joe Biden die??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2027-2029 mit 61% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will Joe Biden die? entschieden?
- When will Joe Biden die? soll am 11. November 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will Joe Biden die? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.