Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2027-04-01 52.3%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Prognostiker
31
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert7. März 24, 13:54 UTC14. März 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2027 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.
- The market will resolve positively when a channel on YouTube or Twitch will stream at least 25 hours of realtime AI-generated video in the span of 48 hours.
- Traditional procedurally generated videos do not count.
- There should be consensus in the community that the video is AI-generated.
- The channel owner should declare it, and no plausible refutation should be published within a week after the broadcast.
- If the channel owner remains silent, I might resolve the market based on a poll or the comments.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2027-04-01 mit 52% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video? entschieden?
- When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video? soll am 14. März 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.