Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2026 75.9%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet24. Juni 25, 20:26 UTC1. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves to the first year where a model is released that: 1.
- Can be run locally on a reasonable consumer phone 2.
- Has comparable scores on most benchmarks to o3-mini (medium).
- I will judge 2 based on benchmarks like Codeforces scores, AIME math, GPQA-Diamond, etc, but will use discretion if it seems obvious some benchmarks have been compromised and that the AI is clearly inferior to o3-mini.
- It will not need to surpass or match o3-mini's performance on all of these, but it will need to do so on the majority.
- Again, some discretion will be used here.