Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2028 26%Führend unter 12 Optionen
2028 26%Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet4. Juli 24, 18:19 UTC12. Juli 35, 03:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.
- Resolves when official financial reporting is available, showing their revenue minus expenses was positive for OpenAI, in any year.
- Resolves that year to "Yes" and all other options to "No".
- We can add more years if they are still running but haven't made a profit yet.
- If they go out of business first, then we resolve to "the named outcome".