What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
2.8 Pkt. (24h)PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 202610T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognosePolymarket 63%+2.8ptFührend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+17.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet31. Juli 26, 09:46 UTC4. Nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PredictItRegeln
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
