What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl1MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognosePolymarket 35.6%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet31. Juli 26, 09:46 UTC4. Nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Regeln
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Polymarket mit 36% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) entschieden?
- What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) soll am 4. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.