Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Democratic Party 60%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet16. Jan. 26, 11:26 UTC1. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be on the winning U.S. presidential ticket (President + VP) in 2028?
Manifold Markets“Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?”
Manifold MarketsWill a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The 2028 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028.
- The market resolves to whichever party the winning candidate is affiliated with at the time of their victory.
- Resolution will be determined by the official Electoral College results and the candidate's party affiliation as recorded by the Federal Election Commission and major news outlets.
- The "Other" category should only resolve yes if a candidate from a party other than Democratic, Republican, or Independent wins the presidency.
- I WILL bet in this market.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Democratic Party mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be? entschieden?
- What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be? soll am 1. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria