Aktuelle Community-Prognose
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet12. Juli 24, 17:20 UTC30. Juni 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
100%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRegeln
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election??
- Manifold Markets bewertet One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK mit 100% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? entschieden?
- What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? soll am 30. Juni 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?