Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 74.5%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet1. Dez. 23, 09:41 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
[Metaculus] Will Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden all have Queens regnant ...sly before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsFrance, Germany, Netherlands, or Belgium have Muslim public holiday by 2040?
Manifold Markets2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
Must be a major election or referendum.
- If it's just some lower-level political operatives with rigging limited to their district that might not be enough to resolve YES.
- It has to be actual messing with the votes, not just CIA messing with the election by putting out propaganda or gerrymandering or whatever.
- I won't bet.
- Will resolve YES if the allegations are significantly high-profile, even if I don't necessarily believe them.
- What constitutes a "high-profile" allegation may result in some controversy.