Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 83.6%
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet20. Juli 26, 15:53 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government announce a new student debt forgiveness program by 2028?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.
- 'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.
- Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 84% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? entschieden?
- US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.