Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.6%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 20 Stunden
Veraltet20. Juli 26, 15:53 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.
- 'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.
- Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.
