Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 92.7%
Prognostiker
45
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
17. Nov. 25, 01:59 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUkraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: November
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.
- The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.
- As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting.
- Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue.
- Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
