Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.3%
Prognostiker
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet17. Nov. 25, 01:59 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUkraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.
- The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.
- As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting.
- Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue.
- Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 24h-Volumen
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Ukraine war ends in 2026? entschieden?
- Ukraine war ends in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Ukraine war ends in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria