Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.7%
Prognostiker
31
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert13. Nov. 25, 23:48 UTC19. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsTrump leaves office before end of second term?
Manifold MarketsWill any SSRIs be DEA-scheduled before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsWho will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump release more Epstein files in Oct 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Trump leaves office before the end of his current term (January 20, 2029) for any reason directly related to the Epstein files or documents.
- This includes resignation, impeachment and conviction, or removal via the 25th Amendment if explicitly triggered by Epstein-related revelations or political pressure stemming from the files.
- The market resolves NO if Trump completes his term or leaves office for unrelated reasons (health, other scandals, etc.).
- If Trump leaves office and the primary cause is ambiguous or disputed, resolution will be determined by the creator's assessment of whether Epstein files were a material factor in the departure.
- Trump promised during the 2024 election to release the Justice Department's "Epstein files," but his administration has resisted doing so.
