Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & CultureHealth & Medicine2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 60.1%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet16. Nov. 25, 01:43 UTC31. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029? entschieden?
- Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029? soll am 31. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Basically the same as my previous market.