Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffUS-PolitikGesellschaft & KulturGesundheit & Medizin2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 60.1%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet16. Nov. 25, 01:43 UTC31. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsBarron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Manifold MarketsMedicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)
Manifold MarketsWhat will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
KalshiRegeln
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
