Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2029 68.5%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet24. Sept. 25, 16:43 UTC31. Dez. 30, 16:38 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?
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Manifold MarketsCoinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
Manifold MarketsWhen will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Each year is resolved to the percentage of goals below achieved by AI-rendered games:
- The game is winnable.
- The game must have any win condition - some kind of task that a player must complete to win.
- If the task is just walking to a goal - considered 50% achieved.
- The game has 10+ hours of gameplay.
- Requires (1), will be estimated based on casual playthrough videos and reporting.