Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 68.3%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
23. Nov. 25, 16:52 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2028, at least one publicly released open‑weights model that can run on a single consumer GPU has capabilities comparable to Google’s Nano Banana Pro (Gemini 3 Pro Image), in the sense that it meets all of the base conditions and at least 3 of the 5 capability criteria below (with at least one of criteria D or E satisfied).
- Otherwise this market resolves NO.
- Base conditions (all must be true for the candidate model)
- For this market, a candidate model is any concrete model (including its required VAE / text encoder / diffusion backbone / LoRAs) that satisfies all of:
- Open weights
- The full weights needed for inference are publicly downloadable (behind at most a simple login and click‑through license), without per‑applicant approval or NDAs.
