Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.9%
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet19. Apr. 26, 02:14 UTC7. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
Manifold MarketsRegeln
In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence:
- The incident occurs in 2026.
- The company has a market cap (by stock price if public, by valuation of latest round if private) over $10 billion prior to the incident.
- The incident consists of damage inflicted by an AI agent which was intentionally activated by company insiders, but was not intended to damage the company.
- For example, a Claude Code instance that was intended to respond to customer service questions ends up irrecoverably deleting an important database.
- It doesn't matter if the agent framework is a public product or an internal company product.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? entschieden?
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? soll am 7. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence: