Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 90.9%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet26. Juni 25, 06:15 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?
KalshiWill Mount Aso erupt during 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiLowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
PolymarketHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Following the latest RealLifeLore video:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJHkHeHFuhg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Kivu
- As far as I can understand, there can be very small degassing events, so for the resolution of this market I'm choosing a threshold of 100 people dead.