Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
21.8 Pkt. (24h)PolitikOne-OffWahlNaher Osten2Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 09:52 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseHung Knesset (political deadlock) 63%+21.8ptFührend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
54
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+21.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet15. Juli 26, 18:59 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Gemini — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 52%
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- Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot 53%
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- — Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?