Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 47.5%Führend unter 10 Optionen
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Veraltet17. Jan. 26, 21:35 UTC1. Jan. 00, 23:59 UTC
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If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
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Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1
- I will add new options based on the following polls:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t) (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t-9O98NdAyP6) https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-answers-should-be-kept-when-m
- https://manifold.markets/4fa/google-form-in-description-which-an
- Original market's description:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.