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Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 47.5%Führend unter 10 Optionen
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet17. Jan. 26, 21:35 UTC1. Jan. 00, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1
- I will add new options based on the following polls:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t) (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t-9O98NdAyP6) https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-answers-should-be-kept-when-m
- https://manifold.markets/4fa/google-form-in-description-which-an
- Original market's description:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. mit 48% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? entschieden?
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? soll am 1. Januar 2200 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1