Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Some year after 2040. 31.1%Führend unter 21 Optionen
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147
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet2. Juli 23, 11:10 UTC16. Feb. 41, 13:48 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.