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The fourth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]"
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- For this question I am not using the exact text of the question, because I think "bug-free" is 1. silly 2. untestable.
- I will instead accept if it produces code of >=10k LOC with <= the number of bugs in an implementation by a human (many small bugs for some significant bugs will unfortunately be down to my subjective impression of whether it's "better")
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4) entschieden?
- In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4) soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The fourth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things