Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 65%
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Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet11. Dez. 25, 19:17 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This is similar to https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big, but I wanted to control for the possibility that abortion might not be a big political issue.
- Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the balance of evidence rather than a specific source.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 65% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? entschieden?
- In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is similar to https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big, but I wanted to control for the possibility that abortion might not be a big political issue.