In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
KIOne-Off8Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 78.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet25. Mai 24, 04:22 UTC2. Juli 27, 06:59 UTC
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This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026.
- Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.