If ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
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Verzogert6. Sept. 26, 10:25 UTC1. Jan. 36, 05:00 UTC
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Condition: On January 1, 2030, at least 8 distinct organizations have each completed a training run within 10x of the largest known training run to date, by total training FLOP (per credible public estimates, e.g. Epoch AI).
- Resolves N/A if fewer than 8 qualify.
- Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if before January 1, 2036, an AI-caused incident kills 1,000 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability).
- Otherwise NO.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
