Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
19
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+18.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet10. Dez. 23, 20:17 UTC1. Jan. 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options