Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 60.1%
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Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
17. Juli 23, 04:23 UTC1. Jan. 30, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
