Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 58%
Prognostiker
70
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet17. Juli 23, 04:23 UTC1. Jan. 30, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 944.111,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.811,5 €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 620.000,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 536.049,8 €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 514.924,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 496.890,6 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 58% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030 entschieden?
- Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030 soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.